The Carolina Panthers’ pass defense, currently ranked 31st by DVOA and EPA, is expected to struggle against dynamic rookie receiver Malik Nabers this week. The Panthers have consistently failed to contain WR1s, allowing five straight top receivers to hit the over on receiving yardage props.

Nabers leads the NFL with an exceptional open score of 99, far above the next-highest receiver at 84, per ESPN data, signaling a unique ability to find open space. His performance may be further boosted by the Panthers’ league-low pressure rate, which could help quarterback Daniel Jones get more clean pocket looks, where Nabers excels with a 44% target per route run rate and 3.12 yards per route. Additionally, with Carolina’s 27th-ranked deep pass defense, Nabers seems well-positioned for positive regression in catching deep targets.

For running back Javonte Williams, the under on longest rush at 10.5 yards appears favorable. Facing the Kansas City Chiefs’ stellar run defense, ranked first in adjusted line yards and second in second-level and open field yards allowed, Williams is likely to be limited. The Chiefs have also given up the second-lowest explosive rush rate in the NFL.

With Williams ranking 39th in explosive rush rate and 42nd in yards after contact, plus Denver’s interest in increasing rookie Audric Estime’s carries, Williams is expected to see limited big-play opportunities in this matchup.

Najee Harris, meanwhile, is set up for a strong performance over 63.5 rushing yards. Since Week 6, Harris has been highly efficient, ranking second in yards after contact per attempt and generating missed tackles.

This week, he faces a Washington defense vulnerable to the run, ranking 28th in rushing success rate allowed. Pittsburgh’s run-heavy game plan should keep Harris heavily involved, especially against a defense allowing the highest yards per carry on man-gap runs. Harris has thrived in these situations, with a 6.14 YPC and 59.1% success rate since Week 6. Even with Cordarelle Patterson back, Harris is a good bet to clear his yardage line with his recent volume and ideal matchup against Washington.